A former CIA officer has stirred a major controversy by issuing a blunt warning to Pakistan: in a straight-up, non-nuclear war, India would decisively overpower it. This remark has reignited geopolitical tension and sparked heated reactions in both capitals.
Who Is Saying This — And Why It Matters
Former CIA officer John Kiriakou, who spent more than a decade with the agency and led its counter-terrorism work in Pakistan, has a deep understanding of the region’s intelligence landscape. He recently said that Pakistan’s constant provocations toward India don’t make strategic sense — because, according to him, in a conventional conflict, “they will lose.” He emphasized that he isn’t talking about nuclear war, but a more traditional military confrontation.
Key Points of His Warning
Kiriakou argues that Pakistan gains nothing by testing India’s patience or escalating tensions. He believes the imbalance is too significant: India’s military strength and willingness to act decisively gives it a clear advantage. He also highlighted moments when India responded forcefully in the past — suggesting that these were not just symbolic, but serious demonstrations of its deterrence capability.
During his time in Islamabad in the early 2000s, Kiriakou claimed he was “unofficially told” that the United States — specifically, the Pentagon — had influence over Pakistan’s nuclear weapons. He said this wasn’t shared with India, implying a complex web of control and secrecy. Such assertions, if true, could suggest deeper, more troubling power dynamics than what is publicly acknowledged.
Reaction From Pakistan
Unsurprisingly, his remarks have not gone down well in Pakistan. Political voices within the country have strongly condemned him, demanding an apology. Kiriakou, however, responded defiantly, even saying he would “wipe” their apology letter in a scathing retort. On top of that, he claims to have received death threats following his statements — a clear indication of how volatile his comments are being perceived.
Why His Perspective Is Significant
Kiriakou’s warning isn’t coming from someone detached from the action. He has first-hand experience in South Asia — especially during a sensitive time in the early 2000s. His insights come from years on the ground, dealing with terror networks, Pakistani intelligence, and real geopolitical risk. That makes his opinions more than just speculation. For many observers, his words offer a sobering reminder of just how fragile peace could be in the region.
His message to Islamabad is clear: continuing to provoke India doesn’t help Pakistan’s long-term security. Instead, it could lead to a conflict where they stand to lose far more than they gain.
What This Could Mean Going Forward
If Pakistan takes his warning seriously, it might rethink its strategy of constant hostility. But if it doesn’t, and tensions escalate, the risk of conventional conflict remains. Kiriakou’s remarks could also shape how international players view the balance of power between India and Pakistan — potentially influencing how key foreign governments and international organizations engage with both nations.
On India’s side, the warning may bolster confidence in its military and diplomatic posture, reinforcing its resolve to defend against cross-border provocations. For Islamabad, it’s a wake-up call: any miscalculated move could have far more severe consequences than expected.